The odds
as of Oct 14, 05:24 UTC- No release by October 31 15% −14
- October 13 14% —
- October 15 12% +7
- October 14 10% +1
- October 20 10% —
- October 16 6.3% —
- October 17 5.3% +0.5
- October 22 4.5% −2
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$68K
Favourite, 7 days+5.4 pts
No release by October 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 7: 9.5% · Oct 8: 16% · Oct 9: 22% · Oct 10: 29% · Oct 11: 28% · Oct 12: 18% · Oct 13: 12% · Oct 14: 15%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗