The odds
as of Oct 5, 15:27 UTC- Darializa Avila Chevalier 36% +26
- Claire Valdez 36% −21
- Connie Chan 8.5% —
- Cori Bush 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$36K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Darializa Avila Chevalier, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 32% · Sep 29: 33% · Sep 30: 33% · Oct 1: 33% · Oct 2: 10% · Oct 3: 13% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Darializa Avila Chevalier; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from the person or through their official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify.
Settlement sources: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
See it on Kalshi ↗