Moving
Mistral Large 4: Text Arena Debut? 1430+ 6.5% ▼−75Arakawa / Nishimoto vs Hosoki / Sato Arakawa / Nishimoto 96% ▲+63Baycurrent Classic End of Round 2 Leader Jacob Bridgeman 74% ▲+62Samsung Lions vs SSG Landers SSG Landers 63% ▲+57Baycurrent Classic: Top 10 Finishers Max Homa 73% ▲+54What will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by? Fire (again) 3.4% ▼−50Kosovo vs Austria Kosovo 4.5% ▼−50OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 164 T tokens 77% ▲+42Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Cassidy Hutchinson 48% ▲+39Bank of Mexico Decision in November? No change 56% ▼−39Sakamoto vs Rublev Rei Sakamoto 66% ▲+38Buse / Vallejo vs Andreozzi / Guinard Ignacio Buse / Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 58% ▲+38Sasnovich vs Kalieva Elvina Kalieva 62% ▲+35ATP Shanghai Winner Carlos Alcaraz 35% ▲+35
PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is 1400+ at 83% on Polymarket, as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC. It's down 7 points in the last 24 hours.

1400+ 83% ▼ 7 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC
  • 1400+ 83% −7
  • 1420+ 69% −11
  • 1440+ 45% +4
  • 1460+ 16% −4

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$6K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−5 pts

1400+, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 983%

Oct 2: 74% · Oct 3: 82% · Oct 4: 77% · Oct 5: 83% · Oct 6: 84% · Oct 7: 83% · Oct 8: 90% · Oct 9: 83%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Settlement sources: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

All →