Moving
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by … J.D. Vance 89% ▲+70Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (… Anthropic 22% ▼−63Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the ele… Gadi Eisenkot 61% ▲+58PPI MoM in October Above 0.4% 93% ▲+56"The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening… 105m+ 74% ▲+53Werder vs Hoffenheim Werder 95% ▲+50Apex XI vs Artech - B Apex XI 28% ▼−50NHL: Players to Record 50+ Goals Connor Bedard 60% ▲+50OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...? December 31, 2028 61% ▲+44Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026 Above 1,400 units 94% ▲+44Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club Al Kholood Saudi Club 50% ▲+42Berlanga Bandera vs Shcherbinina Alina Shcherbinina 93% ▲+42Adams vs Noel Chloe Noel 64% ▲+42Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? 1470+ 59% ▲+40
PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

October 31 leads at 49% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 29, 18:22 UTC. It's up 47 points in the last 24 hours.

October 31 49% ▲ 47 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 29, 18:22 UTC
  • October 31 49% +47
  • November 30 39% +9

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−41 pts

October 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2949%

Oct 22: 91% · Oct 23: 6% · Oct 24: 3% · Oct 25: 3.2% · Oct 26: 4.6% · Oct 27: 1.6% · Oct 28: 1.6% · Oct 29: 49%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required. For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify. Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Economy

More markets like this

All →