The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- December 31, 2029 19% —
- December 31, 2028 16% —
- December 31, 2027 7.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$282K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
December 31, 2029, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 20% · Sep 29: 20% · Sep 30: 20% · Oct 1: 20% · Oct 2: 20% · Oct 3: 19% · Oct 4: 19% · Oct 5: 19%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗