Moving
Luo vs Ren Xi Luo 93% ▲+43ALCS MVP Winner Yandy Díaz 47% ▲+41Kawachi vs Dolya Kazuma Kawachi 90% ▲+40Qu / Shao vs Perez / Schuurs Ellen Perez / Demi Schuurs 91% ▲+40Mertens vs Fernandez Elise Mertens 91% ▲+38Pro Football Next Coach Out Brian Schottenheimer 38% ▲+35NYC median asking rent in December 2026 Above $4,000 46% ▲+33Elise Mertens vs Leylah Annie Fernandez: Set 2 Win… Elise Mertens 81% ▲+33"Housewife" by Tate McRae · Billboard Hot 100 rank… Rank 5 to 6 33% ▲+32Jasika vs Matsuda Koki Matsuda 58% ▲+32Kobori / Shimizu vs Kichenok / Ninomiya Momoko Kobori / Ayano Shimizu 82% ▲+32Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? Post Malone 58% ▲+28magic vs. PARIVISION PARIVISION 60% ▼−25Jiang vs Muramatsu Zijun Jiang 75% ▲+24
PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Longest GitHub critical incident in October?

3-6 hours leads at 57% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 19, 05:25 UTC. It's down 11 points in the last 24 hours.

3-6 hours 57% ▼ 11 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 19, 05:25 UTC
  • 3-6 hours 57% −11
  • 6-12 hours 25% +4
  • 12+ hours 13% +2.6
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+19 pts

3-6 hours, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 11Oct 1957%

Oct 12: 50% · Oct 13: 58% · Oct 14: 48% · Oct 15: 46% · Oct 16: 48% · Oct 17: 72% · Oct 18: 60% · Oct 19: 57%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Settlement sources: https://www.githubstatus.com/

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