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PolymarketCloses November 4, 2026

How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?

5 leads at 45% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 28, 23:17 UTC. It's up 3 points in the last 24 hours.

5 45% ▲ 3 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 28, 23:17 UTC
  • 5 45% +3
  • 6+ 34% −6.3
  • 4 14% −1
  • 3 4% —
  • <3 1.8% +0.6
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$31K
Favourite, 7 daysunch

5, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2846%

Oct 21: 45% · Oct 22: 44% · Oct 23: 49% · Oct 24: 48% · Oct 25: 49% · Oct 26: 37% · Oct 27: 42% · Oct 28: 46%

The same question on Kalshi

Polymarket45%5
3 pt gap
Kalshi43%5 →

Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 28, 23:17 UTC.

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election. All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Politics & elections

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