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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

The market puts it at 60% — about 6 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 13, 15:28 UTC. It's down 26 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 60% ▼ 26 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 13, 15:28 UTC
  • Chance of yes 60% −26
Traded today$700
Traded in all$74K
Yes, 7 days−14 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 1363%

Oct 6: 74% · Oct 7: 74% · Oct 8: 78% · Oct 9: 82% · Oct 10: 81% · Oct 11: 84% · Oct 12: 88% · Oct 13: 63%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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