The odds
as of Oct 13, 15:28 UTC- Chance of yes 60% −26
Traded today$700
Traded in all$74K
Yes, 7 days−14 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 6: 74% · Oct 7: 74% · Oct 8: 78% · Oct 9: 82% · Oct 10: 81% · Oct 11: 84% · Oct 12: 88% · Oct 13: 63%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗