The odds
as of Oct 28, 19:16 UTC- June 30, 2027 52% −30
- February 28, 2027 20% −45
- December 31, 2026 16% −50
- November 30, 2026 6.5% −17
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$26K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−13 pts
June 30, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 27: 82% · Oct 28: 52%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.
Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Settlement sources: https://main.knesset.gov.il
See it on Polymarket ↗