The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- June 30, 2027 23% —
- December 31 12% —
- November 30 5.5% —
- October 31 1.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$45K
Traded in all$26.8M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
June 30, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 23% · Sep 29: 23% · Sep 30: 25% · Oct 1: 24% · Oct 2: 23% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 23% · Oct 5: 23%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗