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PolymarketCloses December 31, 2027

GPT-7 released by...?

December 31, 2027 leads at 86% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 13, 00:38 UTC.

December 31, 2027 86%

The odds

as of Nov 13, 00:38 UTC
  • December 31, 2027 86% —
  • June 30, 2027 51% +2

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$984
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts

December 31, 2027, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 5Nov 1386%

Nov 6: 87% · Nov 7: 87% · Nov 8: 87% · Nov 9: 86% · Nov 10: 86% · Nov 11: 86% · Nov 12: 86% · Nov 13: 86%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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