Moving
Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 0-5 96% ▲+76Riga FC vs. FC RFS Draw (Riga FC vs. FC RFS) 97% ▲+69New Zealand general election winner? National 37% ▼−60Riga FC vs. FC RFS - Exact Score Riga FC 0 - 0 FC RFS 57% ▲+54Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Winner Jon Rahm 71% ▲+41Kilian Feldbausch vs Matteo Martineau Matteo Martineau 83% ▲+41Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Ron DeSantis 54% ▲+40Biro vs Barhacova Sofia Barhacova 86% ▲+37Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? Nithya Raman, 10-12% 60% ▲+35Gakhov vs Parisca Ignacio Parisca 76% ▲+34World Wide Technology Championship Winner Benjamin James 73% ▲+33Kansas Basketball: Next Head Coach Billy Donovan 3.5% ▲+33Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...? January 31, 2027 26% ▼−28Petrzalka vs Zilina B Petrzalka 93% ▲+28
PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?

The market puts it at 2.1% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Nov 8, 11:14 UTC. It's down 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 2.1% ▼ 2.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 8, 11:14 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.1% −2.5
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$39K
Yes, 7 days−4.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 31Nov 82%

Nov 1: 4.5% · Nov 2: 5.5% · Nov 3: 5.5% · Nov 4: 5% · Nov 5: 4.5% · Nov 6: 5% · Nov 7: 4.2% · Nov 8: 2.1%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →