The odds
as of Oct 10, 02:38 UTC- No other person 46% —
- Joni Ernst 9.3% —
- Ron DeSantis 9.3% —
- Steve Feinberg 7.8% —
- Dan Driscoll 3.5% —
- Wesley Hunt 3.3% —
- Mike Rogers 3% —
- Mike Pompeo 2.9% +1
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$39K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
No other person, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 3: 46% · Oct 4: 46% · Oct 5: 46% · Oct 6: 46% · Oct 7: 46% · Oct 8: 46% · Oct 9: 46% · Oct 10: 46%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, No other person; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is no other person, then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim positions don't count.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗