Moving
Porras vs Gonzalez-Galino Valentin Gonzalez-Galino 88% ▲+65Which coalition will form the next Romanian govern… PSD 79% ▲+56Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026? Above 38.7 72% ▲+56Roma vs Real Madrid Roma 83% ▲+56AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF AS Roma 79% ▲+52Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC - Exact… Queens Park Rangers FC 5 - 2 Derby County FC 50% ▲+49Colorado permitted housing units in 2026 Above 30,000 95% ▲+49Manchester City vs PSG PSG 83% ▲+49AMBROGI vs Urribarrens Ramirez Iker Urribarrens Ramirez 84% ▲+49Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC Paris Saint-Germain FC 80% ▲+47Prime Gladiators (USA) vs Space City Cowboys Prime Gladiators (USA) 92% ▲+47Storck Franca vs Cundom Julian Cundom 80% ▲+45Paris Basketball vs. Virtus Bologna Virtus Bologna 83% ▲+42Olivieri vs Barrena Genaro Alberto Olivieri 75% ▲+42
PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

European military action against Iran by...?

December 31 leads at 5.5% (a long shot, about one in 18) on Polymarket, as of Oct 14, 20:23 UTC.

December 31 5.5%

The odds

as of Oct 14, 20:23 UTC
  • December 31 5.5% —
  • October 31 1.5% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$332K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 6Oct 146%

Oct 7: 6% · Oct 8: 6% · Oct 9: 5.5% · Oct 10: 5.5% · Oct 11: 5.5% · Oct 12: 5.5% · Oct 13: 5.5% · Oct 14: 5.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →