The odds
as of Oct 22, 17:21 UTC- 200+ 74% +38
- 180-199 16% −5.5
- 160-179 3.5% −20
- 140-159 1.5% −13
- 120-139 1.1% −5.3
- 100-119 <1% —
- 80-99 <1% —
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+47 pts
200+, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 17: 24% · Oct 18: 20% · Oct 19: 20% · Oct 20: 30% · Oct 21: 40% · Oct 22: 80%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Settlement sources: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
See it on Polymarket ↗