The odds
as of Oct 16, 10:24 UTC- Chance of yes 1.7% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$170K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 9: 3.2% · Oct 10: 2.7% · Oct 11: 2.9% · Oct 12: 3.2% · Oct 13: 2% · Oct 14: 1.7% · Oct 15: 1.7% · Oct 16: 1.7%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗