The odds
as of Oct 6, 22:25 UTC- Chance of yes 7.5% −2
Traded today$715
Traded in all$395K
Yes, 7 days+3.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 3.5% · Sep 30: 6.5% · Oct 1: 5.5% · Oct 2: 7% · Oct 3: 8% · Oct 4: 7.5% · Oct 5: 8.5% · Oct 6: 7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Tesla
See it on Kalshi ↗