The odds
as of Nov 4, 10:19 UTC- At least 48% 95% +20
- At least 50% 87% +84
- At least 52% 82% +28
- At least 54% 60% +23
- At least 56% 7% −7
- At least 58% 1.5% −3
- At least 60% 1.5% —
- At least 62% 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
At least 48%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 92% · Oct 29: 92% · Oct 30: 92% · Oct 31: 94% · Nov 1: 94% · Nov 2: 94% · Nov 3: 94% · Nov 4: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 48%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Peggy Flanagan in the 2026 Minnesota Senate election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Peggy Flanagan ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, St. Paul, MN
See it on Kalshi ↗