The odds
as of Nov 4, 10:19 UTC- At least 48% 93% +2
- At least 50% 93% +16
- At least 52% 8% −52
- At least 53% 5% −39
- At least 54% 5% −28
- At least 56% 1.5% −19
- At least 58% 1.5% −9
- At least 60% 1.5% −3
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$48K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts
At least 48%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 96% · Oct 28: 92% · Oct 29: 96% · Oct 30: 96% · Oct 31: 96% · Nov 2: 96% · Nov 3: 96% · Nov 4: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 48%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ashley Moody in the 2026 Florida Senate election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Ashley Moody ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Division of Elections, Office of the Secretary of State, Tallahassee, FL
See it on Kalshi ↗