The odds
as of Oct 27, 02:33 UTC- 4.96% or above 72% +6
- 4.98% or above 53% −12
- 5% or above 46% −11
- 5.02% or above 38% −4
- 5.04% or above 32% −8
- 5.06% or above 21% −9
- 5.08% or above 16% −14
- 5.18% or above 31% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−8 pts
4.96% or above, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 85% · Oct 21: 86% · Oct 22: 56% · Oct 23: 77% · Oct 24: 75% · Oct 25: 69% · Oct 26: 67% · Oct 27: 66%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 4.96% or above; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.
Settlement sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury
See it on Kalshi ↗