The odds
as of Oct 6, 11:24 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 4% +6
- Before Aug 1, 2026 2% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$82K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 3.5% · Oct 1: 3.5% · Oct 2: 3.5% · Oct 3: 3% · Oct 4: 3% · Oct 5: 3.5% · Oct 6: 4.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; The White House; Associated Press; BBC; ABC News; New York Times; CNBC; POLITICO; NBC; Financial Times; Bloomberg; CNN; The Wall Street Journal; Fox News; Reuters; MSNBC; CBS News
See it on Kalshi ↗