The odds
as of Nov 8, 14:14 UTC- Before Apr 1, 2027 59% −12
- Before Jan 1, 2027 37% −3
- Before Dec 1, 2026 17% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$598
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−13 pts
Before Apr 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 1: 72% · Nov 2: 82% · Nov 3: 71% · Nov 4: 72% · Nov 5: 72% · Nov 6: 63% · Nov 7: 63% · Nov 8: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; Fox News; The Wall Street Journal; The Guardian; ABC; Bloomberg News; CBS; South China Morning Post; NBC; the Associated Press; The Verge; BBC; Axios; CNN; ABC News Australia; The Information; Semafor; MSNBC; CBC; Reuters; Politico; The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗