The odds
as of Nov 8, 02:21 UTC- Xi Jinping 97% −2
- Mark Carney 92% −3
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 90% +42
- Vladimir Putin 88% +1
- Narendra Modi 84% —
- Sanae Takaichi 82% —
- Lee Jae-myung 82% —
- Mohammed bin Salman 78% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
Xi Jinping, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 1: 90% · Nov 2: 88% · Nov 3: 88% · Nov 4: 90% · Nov 5: 99% · Nov 6: 99% · Nov 7: 99% · Nov 8: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Xi Jinping; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet (including phone calls) in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; The White House; Associated Press; BBC; ABC News; New York Times; CNBC; POLITICO; NBC; Financial Times; Bloomberg; CNN; The Wall Street Journal; Fox News; Reuters; MSNBC; CBS News; ABC News Australia; Deutsche Welle; Al Jazeera English
See it on Kalshi ↗