The odds
as of Oct 13, 14:30 UTC- Above 260 92% +3
- Above 270 81% —
- Above 280 59% —
- Above 290 46% —
- Above 300 28% —
- Above 310 21% —
- Above 320 9.5% —
- Above 330 5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$26K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+10 pts
Above 260, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 89% · Oct 10: 89% · Oct 11: 89% · Oct 12: 92% · Oct 13: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 260; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 260 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗