The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2028 92% +34
- Before Jan 1, 2029 77% +4
- Before Oct 1, 2027 74% —
- Before Jul 1, 2028 70% —
- Before Jul 1, 2027 45% −27
- Before Apr 1, 2027 38% −32
- Before Dec 1, 2026 15% +1
- Before Nov 1, 2026 3.5% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$993K
Favourite, 7 days+26 pts
Before Jan 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 70% · Sep 29: 61% · Sep 30: 62% · Oct 1: 67% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 92% · Oct 4: 60% · Oct 5: 65%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Settlement sources: Pete Hegseth; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg News; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Fox News; Reuters; official government records and registries; Department of Defense; CNN; the New York Times; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗