The odds
as of Oct 16, 06:37 UTC- Before Jan 2, 2028 59% +26
- Before Jan 2, 2027 3.6% −5
- Before Sep 2, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$69K
Favourite, 7 days+36 pts
Before Jan 2, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 23% · Oct 9: 23% · Oct 12: 23% · Oct 15: 23%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 2, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If United Kingdom officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. A "snap election" is a national election for the legislature or head of government called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally or legally required date. The announcement must be made by a person or body with the legal authority to call such elections, must specify an actual election date, and must occur after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the election is scheduled to take place.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; BBC; The Guardian; Financial Times
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