When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

• Before 2040 61% −5.6
• Before 2035 51% —
• Before 2030 36% —
• Before 2027 3.5% +1

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Sep 27: 61% · Sep 28: 62% · Sep 29: 61% · Sep 30: 61% · Oct 1: 61% · Oct 2: 62% · Oct 4: 61% · Oct 5: 61%

Settlement sources: Physical Review X; Quantum Science and Technology; Nature Physics; Science Advances; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences; Physical Review A; Nature Communications; the National Institute of Standards and Technology official publications; IBM Research peer-reviewed publications; Google Quantum AI peer-reviewed publications; Quantinuum peer-reviewed publications; IonQ peer-reviewed publications; MIT Technology Review; IEEE Transactions on Quantum Engineering; Quantum Computing Report; Science Magazine; Reuters; Associated Press; Bloomberg News; The Wall Street Journal; The New York Times; Nature; Science; Physical Review Letters