The odds
as of Nov 5, 10:17 UTC- China 85% +3
- Russia 12% —
- Alaska 11% —
- New York City 4% —
- Turkey 4% —
- Qatar 4% —
- Saudi Arabia 4% —
- Germany 3% —
Traded today$524
Traded in all$49K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
China, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 83% · Oct 29: 83% · Oct 30: 83% · Oct 31: 83% · Nov 1: 83% · Nov 2: 83% · Nov 4: 83% · Nov 5: 71%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Nov 5, 10:17 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, China; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in China before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; Bloomberg; Reuters; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; NBC; MSNBC; CNN; Semafor; The Information; ESPN; Fox News; Axios; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗