The odds
as of Nov 1, 22:14 UTC- Above 170 96% +2
- Above 180 87% —
- Above 185 76% +1
- Above 190 63% —
- Above 195 48% —
- Above 200 33% —
- Above 205 13% —
- Above 210 6.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$18K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
Above 170, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 87% · Oct 31: 94% · Nov 1: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 170; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Panama Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗