The odds
as of Nov 4, 21:14 UTC- Chance of yes 9.5% −6
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$29K
Yes, 7 days−6 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 16% · Oct 29: 16% · Oct 30: 16% · Oct 31: 16% · Nov 1: 16% · Nov 2: 16% · Nov 3: 16% · Nov 4: 9.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf BLS reports that Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 is above 26,400 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS series SMU41000003133440001, measured in thousands of jobs and not seasonally adjusted. Exactly 26.4 thousand resolves No. Use the value published following BLS’s annual benchmark revision; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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