The odds
as of Oct 16, 14:25 UTC- Chance of yes 11% −4
Traded today$21K
Traded in all$26K
Yes, 7 days−49 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 15: 17% · Oct 16: 11%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Ilhan Omar has their U.S. citizenship revoked before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a final, involuntary revocation counts: a denaturalization judgment, a final USCIS decision, or loss of citizenship triggered by a federal conviction, with all appeals resolved before the deadline. A filed case, investigation, indictment or proposed legislation does not count, and neither does voluntary renunciation.
Settlement sources: USCIS; U.S. Department of State; PACER; Federal Register; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg; Reuters; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; NBC; CBS; ABC; Fox News; MSNBC; BBC News; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗