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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?

Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 44% (about 4 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 10, 02:38 UTC. It's down 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Before Jan 20, 2029 44% ▼ 2.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 10, 02:38 UTC
  • Before Jan 20, 2029 44% −2.5
  • Before Jan 1, 2028 41% —
  • Before Jul 1, 2027 28% —
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 10% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$1K
Traded in all$104K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts

Before Jan 20, 2029, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 3Oct 1048%

Oct 3: 47% · Oct 6: 47% · Oct 7: 47% · Oct 8: 47% · Oct 9: 47% · Oct 10: 48%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If any Republican member of Congress calls for the impeachment of the President of the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Statements must be clear, unambiguous, and current. This includes any of the following: Introducing articles of impeachment (if applicable) Co-sponsoring articles of impeachment (if applicable) Voting for articles of impeachment (if applicable) Clear, unambiguous, and explicit statements supporting impeachment such as "the person supports impeachment of the President" or "the person believes the President should be impeached" Posts on official social media accounts, press releases, or legislative websites expressing that impeachment should proceed. The call for impeachment is still encompassed by the Payout Criterion even if subsequently retracted. The following do NOT qualify: Vague or implicit references that do not clearly advocate for impeachment, such as expressions of concern or dissatisfaction with presidential conduct that do not explicitly mention impeachment Statements criticizing the President's actions or policies, statements of process or neutrality, e.g., "Let's wait for the investigation" or "The House should explore impeachment" without a personal endorsement Statements contingent on future events, such as "If X happens, then I will support impeachment" or "We may need to consider impeachment if more evidence emerges" Statements made prior to Issuance, and "likes" or "retweets" on social media of other individuals calling for impeachment without additional commentary

Settlement sources: the United States Senate; the United States House of Representatives; the Congressional Record; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC

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Politics & elections

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