The odds
as of Nov 4, 21:14 UTC- Above 60 96% —
- Above 65 93% —
- Above 70 86% —
- Above 75 77% —
- Above 80 60% —
- Above 85 49% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 60, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 31: 96% · Nov 2: 96% · Nov 3: 96% · Nov 4: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 60; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Producer Price Index by Commodity: Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Corrugated Recyclable Paper (BLS series WPU09120325; not seasonally adjusted; index June 2006=100) for March 2027 is above 60 index points, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index by Commodity: Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Corrugated Recyclable Paper, series WPU09120325, for March 2027. It is the not-seasonally-adjusted index level, June 2006=100, expressed in index points. This provides index-based OCC exposure, not a dollar price per ton. This market expressly uses the first value published by BLS for that reporting month, including an initially preliminary value. Subsequent revisions and corrections do not affect resolution. The comparison is strictly greater than the strike, using the original BLS-reported precision without additional rounding; equality resolves to No. BLS is the binding source. FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU09120325) is a reference display; revised FRED history is not a substitute for the original BLS publication. If publication is delayed, trading remains closed and determination waits for publication, subject to the Contract's expiration and data-unavailability provisions. The publication deadline for this event is July 14, 2027 at 10:00 AM EDT. Missing data and outcome reviews follow the Contract's Expiration and Contingencies provisions. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: BLS Corrugated Recyclable Paper PPI (WPU09120325) via FRED
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