The odds
as of Oct 18, 05:22 UTC- Chance of yes 54% —
Traded today$527
Traded in all$145K
Yes, 7 days+4 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 11: 50% · Oct 12: 49% · Oct 13: 51% · Oct 14: 49% · Oct 15: 50% · Oct 16: 50% · Oct 17: 54% · Oct 18: 54%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf a major meteor (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) hits Earth before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: NASA
See it on Kalshi ↗