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KalshiCloses November 1, 2026

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Before Jan 1, 2029 leads at 81% (about 8 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 7, 17:27 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 7, 17:27 UTC
  • Before Jan 1, 2029 81% +0.5
  • Before Jul 1, 2028 68% −5
  • Before Jan 1, 2028 56% —
  • Before Oct 1, 2027 48% +5
  • Before Jul 1, 2027 38% +2
  • Before Apr 1, 2027 27% —
  • Before Dec 1, 2026 6.5% −1
  • Before Oct 1, 2026 2% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$889K
Favourite, 7 days−9.5 pts

Before Jan 1, 2029, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 29Oct 781%

Sep 30: 91% · Oct 1: 90% · Oct 2: 89% · Oct 3: 81% · Oct 4: 82% · Oct 5: 82% · Oct 6: 81% · Oct 7: 81%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

Settlement sources: Kash Patel; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg News; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Fox News; Reuters; official government records and registries; Federal Bureau of Investigation; CNN; the New York Times; Politico

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