The odds
as of Oct 18, 16:23 UTC- Before Dec 1, 2026 25% +15
- Before Oct 1, 2026 4% —
- Before Nov 1, 2026 4% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 2% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
Before Dec 1, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 11: 13% · Oct 12: 11% · Oct 13: 11% · Oct 14: 12% · Oct 15: 12% · Oct 16: 12% · Oct 17: 12% · Oct 18: 57%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Dec 1, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Kash Patel leaves (or announces he will leave) as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Settlement sources: Kash Patel; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg News; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Fox News; Reuters; official government records and registries; the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held; CNN; the New York Times; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗