The odds
as of Oct 10, 05:25 UTC- Bezalel Smotrich 14% −34
- Eli Cohen 13% —
- Avigdor Lieberman 12% —
- Shaul Meridor 9% —
- Keren Terner Eyal 8.5% —
- Israel Katz 3% —
- Naftali Bennett 3% —
- Nir Barkat 3% —
Traded today$67K
Traded in all$67K
Favourite, 7 days−36 pts
Bezalel Smotrich, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 13% · Oct 10: 13%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 10, 05:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Bezalel Smotrich; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Bezalel Smotrich formally takes office as Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Finance in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.
Settlement sources: the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; the New York Times; The Washington Post; ABC News Australia; Al Jazeera; Deutsche Welle; CNBC; BBC; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MS Now; NBC; The Wall Street Journal
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