The odds
as of Oct 22, 22:21 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2028 83% +34
- Before Jul 1, 2027 80% —
- Before Oct 1, 2027 80% —
- Before Apr 1, 2027 43% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 6.5% −4
- Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$961
Traded in all$106K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Before Jan 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 14: 84% · Oct 15: 84% · Oct 17: 82% · Oct 19: 82% · Oct 20: 84% · Oct 21: 84% · Oct 22: 80%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Oura Health Oy confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2028.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg; BBC; ABC; Reuters; CNBC; Financial Times
See it on Kalshi ↗