The odds
as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC- John Brennan 24% —
- Mahmoud Khalil 19% +0.5
- Lee Jun-seok 11% —
- James Comey 10% −0.7
- Brandon Johnson 10% —
- Tom Homan 8.4% —
- Susan Rice 8% —
- Anthony Fauci 7.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$480K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
John Brennan, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 24% · Sep 29: 25% · Sep 30: 24% · Oct 1: 24% · Oct 2: 24% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 24% · Oct 5: 24%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗