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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan leads at 24% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC
  • John Brennan 24% —
  • Mahmoud Khalil 19% +0.5
  • Lee Jun-seok 11% —
  • James Comey 10% −0.7
  • Brandon Johnson 10% —
  • Tom Homan 8.4% —
  • Susan Rice 8% —
  • Anthony Fauci 7.7% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$4K
Traded in all$480K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts

John Brennan, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 524%

Sep 28: 24% · Sep 29: 25% · Sep 30: 24% · Oct 1: 24% · Oct 2: 24% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 24% · Oct 5: 24%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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