The odds
as of Oct 12, 05:32 UTC- Above 4 82% —
- Above 5 55% −5
- Above 6 33% +1
- Above 8 9.5% —
- Above 10 6.5% —
- Above 12 2.5% —
- Above 14 2.5% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 4; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗