The odds
as of Oct 18, 19:17 UTC- At least 1 trillion 3.9% −2.6
- At least 2 trillion 4% +1.7
- At least 50 billion 5.3% —
- At least 250 billion 4.3% +2.3
- At least 500 billion 3.9% —
- At least 750 billion 2.6% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$275K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
At least 50 billion, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 13: 4.3% · Oct 14: 4.2% · Oct 15: 4.2% · Oct 16: 4.2% · Oct 17: 5.3%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 50 billion; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.
Settlement sources: FRED
See it on Kalshi ↗