The odds
as of Nov 6, 19:14 UTC- 2.6% to 3.0% 18% −0.5
- 2.1% to 2.5% 14% —
- 1.6% to 2.0% 10% —
- 3.6% to 4.0% 10% —
- 6.1% or Above 9% +77
- 0.0% or Below 8% —
- 0.6% to 1.0% 6% —
- 4.1% to 4.5% 6% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$40K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
2.6% to 3.0%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 15% · Oct 31: 14% · Nov 1: 14% · Nov 2: 16% · Nov 3: 12% · Nov 4: 18% · Nov 5: 19% · Nov 6: 18%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 2.6% to 3.0%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2030 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2030 GDP in early 2031. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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