The odds
as of Oct 16, 14:25 UTC- Fed maintains rate 86% +15
- Hike 25bps 12% +1
- Cut 25bps 5.5% −9
- Hike >25bps 2% +1
- Cut >25bps 1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$53K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
Fed maintains rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 76% · Oct 10: 76% · Oct 11: 79% · Oct 12: 79% · Oct 13: 79% · Oct 14: 80% · Oct 15: 73% · Oct 16: 80%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Fed maintains rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗