The odds
as of Nov 3, 04:19 UTC- Before 2028 92% +1.5
- Before July 2027 87% —
- Before October 2027 83% —
- Before Mar 1, 2027 67% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 18% +45
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+1.5 pts
Before 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 26: 90% · Oct 27: 90% · Oct 28: 91% · Oct 29: 90% · Oct 30: 90% · Oct 31: 90% · Nov 1: 90% · Nov 2: 91%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: U.S. Food and Drug Administration.; FDA; Compass Pathways
See it on Kalshi ↗