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KalshiCloses November 7, 2028

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Pete Buttigieg leads at 30% (about 3 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 18, 16:23 UTC. It's up 2 points in the last 24 hours.

Pete Buttigieg 30% ▲ 2 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 18, 16:23 UTC
  • Pete Buttigieg 30% +2
  • Andy Beshear 25% +1
  • Gavin Newsom 18% —
  • Kamala Harris 7% +5.3
  • J.B. Pritzker 5.7% —
  • Jon Ossoff 5.1% —
  • Josh Shapiro 4.2% —
  • Wes Moore 3.8% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$92K
Favourite, 7 days+7 pts

Pete Buttigieg, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 12Oct 1838%

Oct 12: 24% · Oct 13: 22% · Oct 14: 24% · Oct 15: 24% · Oct 16: 25% · Oct 17: 25% · Oct 18: 38%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Pete Buttigieg; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Pete Buttigieg is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

Settlement sources: person; the Federal Election Commission; Ballotpedia; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; Politico; Axios; CNN; ABC; CBS; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; official campaign websites or social media accounts of declared candidates

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