The odds
as of Oct 6, 15:25 UTC- Chance of yes 5.1% −7
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$79K
Yes, 7 days−1.4 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 6.5% · Sep 30: 6.5% · Oct 1: 6.5% · Oct 2: 6.8% · Oct 3: 6.6% · Oct 4: 6.5% · Oct 5: 6.9% · Oct 6: 5.2%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Standard & Poor's; Moody's; Fitch
See it on Kalshi ↗