The odds
as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC- Chance of yes 20% −2
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$25.9M
Yes, 7 days−3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 23% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 23% · Oct 5: 23% · Oct 6: 21% · Oct 7: 22% · Oct 8: 21% · Oct 9: 20%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: BLS; Zillow; FRED; BEA
See it on Kalshi ↗