The odds
as of Oct 27, 23:15 UTC- Maintain current rate 75% −3
- Hike 1-25bps 25% —
- Cut more than 25bps 8% +7
- Cut 1-25bps 2% —
- Hike more than 25bps 1% —
Traded today$46K
Traded in all$63K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Maintain current rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 70% · Oct 21: 71% · Oct 22: 77% · Oct 27: 74%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
Settlement sources: Narodowy Bank Polski; Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗