The odds
as of Nov 4, 10:19 UTC- Yes, ≥1% 1.5% −38
- Yes, ≥4% 1.5% −6
- Yes, ≥7% 1.5% −11
- Yes, ≥10% 1.5% +19
- Yes, ≥13% 1.5% −4
- Yes, ≥16% 1.5% −5
- Yes, ≥19% 1.5% −4
- Yes, ≥22% 1.5% −4
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days−25 pts
Yes, ≥1%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 14% · Oct 29: 17% · Oct 30: 17% · Oct 31: 18% · Nov 1: 19% · Nov 2: 19% · Nov 3: 20% · Nov 4: 1.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Yes, ≥1%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Yes minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the option that finishes first if Yes loses. If Yes wins, the margin will be positive; if Yes loses, the margin will be negative; if Yes ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Settlement sources: California Secretary of State
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