The odds
as of Nov 4, 10:19 UTC- Above 150 97% +1
- Above 160 97% +2
- Above 170 94% +3
- Above 180 81% +2
- Above 185 69% +6
- Above 190 62% +3
- Above 195 50% —
- Above 200 41% +4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$13K
Traded in all$53K
Favourite, 7 days+9.5 pts
Above 150, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 82% · Oct 31: 95% · Nov 1: 96% · Nov 2: 98% · Nov 3: 98% · Nov 4: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 150; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗